In short: By process of elimination: reshoring must be done well and cannot be inflationary, the US has no skilled trades / grid / "machines to make the machines," and of the three capable countries China is off-limits and Germany is "getting beat up by the Chinese" (Korea's Kospi "trading like an altcoin"). "The Japanese do a lot of the stuff that the Chinese do, and in some ways better… they are going to have to do the heavy lifting."
This is a theme, not a single stock, and he reaches it by elimination rather than enthusiasm. In manufacturing you can have it fast, cheap, or made well — pick two. America needs to rebuild its factories and grid, and it needs the work done properly; if it also tries to do it fast, the extra spending stokes inflation and "the bond market's going to blow up." So it will be done well and slowly — and America can no longer do it alone, having lost the skilled trades and "the machines to make the machines."
That leaves three suppliers of heavy industrial capability: Germany (losing ground to China), China (politically off-limits), and Japan. Korea only helps at the margin — its index is now effectively two AI stocks, "trading like an altcoin." So Japan's industrial and machinery companies, which have lagged the headline Nikkei and its AI names, are the ones who "have to do the heavy lifting of reshoring the US" — and get paid for it.
49:30The other thing I think that I've increasingly really come around to thanks to a friend of mine is Japan. Japanese equities and Japanese industrial equities in particular, which have not performed as well as a headline Nikkei. And the reason for that is simple. There's an old saw in production, right? You can have something fast cheap or made well.
In short: The US "can't reshore without Japan" — if you want to build something you need Japan (or China) to build it for you, and China won't. Japan's industrials have lagged the AI-headline stuff; "I think Japanese industrial equities also do very well." Still "pretty early days."
This isn't a single stock — it's a theme. Gromen's argument: America decided too late to rebuild its factories, so if the West wants to physically make things again, it needs Japan to build them (China being off-limits politically). Japan's big industrial and machinery companies are the ones with the know-how and capacity to do it. Those industrials have lagged the flashy AI names, so he thinks they "also do very well" from here — while cautioning it's "pretty early days," i.e. a multi-year setup, not a fast trade.
36:14And the reality is that the U.S. is not going to be able to reshore without Japan. If you want to build something these days, you're going to have to have Japan build it for you or China build it for you. And China is not going to be the one to build it for us for obvious reasons.
Nothing matches this filter.
Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.